Win rate
Win rate is the share of your trades that close in profit. If 6 out of 10 trades are winners, your win rate is 60%. On its own it does not tell you whether a strategy makes money.
How it works
The calculation is simple: winning trades / total trades × 100%. Breakeven trades are usually either excluded or counted separately; what matters is doing it the same way every time.
Win rate only means something together with the ratio of average win to average loss. A strategy that wins 35% of the time can make money if winners are three times the size of losers. A strategy that wins 80% can lose money if one loss wipes out five wins. The minimum win rate to break even with a reward-to-risk ratio R is 1 / (1 + R): at 1:2 that is about 33%.
For win rate to mean anything you need enough trades: over 10 trades it is close to random; a few dozen is a sensible minimum and 100 or more is better. Your trade journal or an honest backtest is the most reliable source.
In a month you take 40 trades: 16 winners and 24 losers. Win rate = 16 / 40 = 40%. Average win $150, average loss $50: 16 × 150 − 24 × 50 = $2,400 − $1,200 = +$1,200. Despite a low win rate, the strategy is profitable because of the win-to-loss ratio.
The mistake is chasing a high win rate: grabbing profit on the smallest move and sitting through losses with no stop. The win rate looks great, then one big loss erases a month's work. Judge a strategy by win rate together with the win-to-loss ratio and expectancy.
Questions and answers
What is win rate in simple terms?
It is the percentage of trades that close in profit. 7 winners out of 10 is a 70% win rate.
What is a good win rate?
There is no good number in isolation. With a 1:2 reward-to-risk ratio, 40% can be profitable, while at 1:0.5 even 65% is not enough.
How do you calculate the breakeven win rate?
Use 1 / (1 + R), where R is average win divided by average loss. At R = 2 you need about 33%, before fees.
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Updated: 2026-10-19